Effect of Climate Change on Food Grain Production in India

Abstract

India, with its agrarian economy and vast population, is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, particularly in the context of food grain production. Agriculture contributes significantly to national GDP and rural livelihoods, with rice, wheat, pulses, and coarse cereals forming the cornerstone of food security. However, changing climate variables rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events, and heightened incidence of pests and diseases are increasingly disrupting crop productivity and agricultural stability. Rice and wheat, the two primary food grains, are particularly sensitive to climatic stresses. Elevated minimum temperatures and unseasonal rainfall have been linked to yield reductions in rice, especially during reproductive stages. Wheat, predominantly cultivated during the Rabi season, is acutely susceptible to terminal heat stress, where even a 1–2°C rise in temperature during the grain-filling period can significantly impair yields. In addition, pulses and coarse cereals, though traditionally more resilient, are now increasingly affected by water scarcity and soil degradation. Regional disparities further compound the challenge. Northern India is facing declining groundwater levels and rising heat stress; eastern India is increasingly prone to floods and delayed monsoons; while southern and western states experience prolonged droughts and water stress. These variations lead to spatially uneven impacts on crop output and pose significant risks to national food supply chains. Moreover, climate-induced shifts in pest and disease dynamics such as the spread of fall armyworm in maize have added new pressures on crop protection and input management. Economic losses are further intensified by inadequate adaptation infrastructure and the limited resilience capacity of smallholder farmers. This paper synthesizes current evidence on the biophysical and socioeconomic effects of climate change on food grain production in India. It also reviews policy responses and adaptive strategies, including the development of climate-resilient crop varieties, precision agriculture, enhanced irrigation practices, crop insurance, and farmer advisory systems. The findings underscore the need for an integrated, region-specific, and inclusive approach to ensure sustainable grain production and long-term food security in a changing climate.